U.S. election those years, fly and do not fly poll – Sohu news reshacker

U.S. presidential election: in those years, reliable and reliable poll – Sohu news 1936 election, the "literary digest" prediction of the Republican candidate Alf Landon will win? Roosevelt was elected president, Roosevelt won a landslide victory in 1948; the U.S. presidential election, and most pollsters predicted Gallup, Dewey would beat Truman, Truman won the result; on 2000 George W. Bush and Gore, Gallup’s poll had a large fluctuation, the final result is inconsistent; 2012 Obama against Romney, also made a mistake. Liang Xiufeng Beijing time on November 8th 19, the U.S. general election will be officially kicked off. At present, most polls show that Hilary will win. The poll is one-sided, we basically can be judged, Hilary won the election victory. For the general election poll, the remaining question is that the candidate’s final support rate, the number of voters to get the specific. This is also the concern of various polling agencies, to more accurately predict the support rate, is definitely a glorious thing, but also the best proof of their professionalism. As far as the results are far away, they will be laughed at. How important is an accurate poll? Accurate poll, is the pursuit of various polling agencies. This is very important to maintain the reputation of the pollsters, and even affect the survival and development. There is a well-known story in the history of the U.S. general election poll, which is about the literary digest and Gallup. In the 1936 presidential election, Roosevelt, the Democratic candidate for the Republican Party candidate for president Alf, was named by the United States. He was a candidate for president of the Republic of China in the United States in the year of the election. Literary digest had accurately predicted the results of the 5 presidential election. In the 1936 election, "literary digest" mailed 10 million questionnaires, which were recovered to 2 million 300 thousand copies, with a large number of samples. After analysis, they predicted that the Republican candidate Alf – Landon will win over president elect Roosevelt. As a result, Mr Roosevelt won a landslide victory in 48 states, with a total of more than 46 votes in the general election of more than $60%. The literary digest was humiliated, but it was a fiasco that soon led to bankruptcy. Originally, the "literary digest" is in accordance with the phone number of the selected 10 million subjects, but in the United States could afford the phone are often relatively wealthy, conservative Republican voters, while Roosevelt’s support of the broad masses of workers group were excluded from the survey scope, thus causing significant deviation in the sample. But another just established a year of the poll company Gallup, with only 50 thousand samples, the results are completely opposite. The method is stratified random sampling. Stratified random sampling, to avoid the focus of a sample of a group of people, can more objectively reflect the tendency of all voters. Gallup became famous for this war, and gradually grew into a well-known u.s.. Gallup founder, George, is also regarded as the representative of the general election poll of the scientific character of the. It is I leave such a saying: "sample survey of public opinion is the root for" democracy pulse pulse ".相关的主题文章:

 

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