The three derivatives battlefield between the mother and the bear-stand by me shinee

The three battlefield derivatives central mother and short showdown in recent months, the central bank Chinese before and after a series of occasions from short, successful to stabilize the RMB exchange rate, but the concern of the spot market, there are three "battlefield" can not be ignored, many are moving to short fire force derivatives bet on RMB devaluation. The trading of RMB in the spot market is relatively good and easy to operate, but the disadvantage is that the leverage level is low; although the derivatives market is complex, it can often obtain huge leverage from brokers or banks. Forward foreign exchange market long-term offshore RMB market selling pressure is much larger than the spot market, the figure can be seen 12 months forward – stock exchange difference since the middle of last year continued to expand to the highest value, indicating that the market is expected to weaken the renminbi subsequent reduction: the right market in different period of the dollar against the offshore renminbi options risk reversal rate (risk reversals) sharply higher. The risk reversal rate is the volatility difference between the buying and selling rights of the foreign exchange market (the execution date and the execution price of the two options are equal). When the risk reversal becomes larger, indicating that USDCNH buy the right to sell the right to demand is greater than the expected demand, the offshore renminbi exchange rate will decline: credit default swaps (CDS) market of RMB spot market in recent months was stabilized, but in different currencies, CDS government to intervene in the market, investors believe that the possibility of China bonds the default in the continued high, of course, the "default" is not really a breach of contract, if the RMB is expected to weaken, the price of CDS will also rise into [shares] discuss Sina Finance

央妈和空头对决的三大衍生品战场   最近数月,中国央行在一系列场合前后夹击空头,成功稳住了人民币汇率,但是在大家关注的现货市场之外,还有三大“战场”不容忽视,不少空头正转移火力至衍生品市场押注人民币贬值。   现货市场买卖人民币相对来说流动性较好,操作较简便,但缺点是杠杆程度较低;衍生品市场虽然操作复杂,但往往能从经纪商或银行处获得巨大的杠杆。   远期外汇市场   远期离岸人民币市场的卖压程度要远大于现货市场,由下图可以看出12个月远期-现货的汇差自去年年中以来持续扩大至历史最高值,显示市场对人民币后续走弱的预期不减:   期权市场   不同期限的美元对离岸人民币期权风险逆转率 (risk reversals)大幅走高。风险逆转率是外汇市场买权和卖权之间的波动率差(这两份期权的执行日期和执行价相等)。当风险逆转变大,表明USDCNH的买权需求大于卖权需求,预期离岸人民币汇价将下滑:   信用违约互换(CDS)市场   人民币现货市场在最近一个月里明显趋稳,但不同于汇市,政府难以干预的CDS市场中,投资者们认为中国国债违约的可能性在持续走高,当然此“违约”并非真正的违约,人民币如果预期走弱,CDS的价格同样会上涨: 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

 

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