Sheng Wenbing U.S. dollar deferred interest rate hike, short-term adjustment rebound in non US Japan-roselip

Sheng Wenbing: $postpone the short-term interest rates adjusted non Japan rebound in the dollar yesterday after the interest rate decision announcement in no hurry to raise interest rates, the dollar volatility in the short term, the fundamentals do not support the dollar, but in the long term that the dollar is strong, the Fed’s policy needs to be more clearly depends on the data, the market may not believe the Fed’s policy on in the data. The medium-term interest rate path is regarded as a calendar based commitment. Urged the Federal Reserve to adjust the "dot matrix diagram" to better guide the market. Expected economic growth and job market improvement in the United States in 2016. As inflation goes down, the policy gets bigger. The extent of the decline in inflation expectations is troubling. The stock sell-off eased the medium-term asset bubble risk. In the long term the dollar is still strong but the medium-term adjustment, the market waiting for the specific data, only the economic data $was likely to continue upward, about $95.30 strong support, as long as the position above the long-term dollar is still up mainly. Most Federal Reserve officials believe the U.S. is growing moderately. Federal Reserve officials believe that more financial tightening may amplify downside risks. A few Federal Reserve officials believe that the direct evidence of inflation is the key. Some Fed officials believe that inflation prospects are more uncertain. Most Federal Reserve officials believe that the U.S. labor market was stable in 2016, and several officials said it was moderate. Some Fed officials worry about China’s drag on the U.S. economy. Emphasizing the timing and pace of interest rate hike depends on economic data. The dollar and oil may depress inflation for a longer time. Monetary policy is expected to be tightened step by step. Most Federal Reserve officials believe that with the decline in oil prices and the dollar’s negative factors, the U.S. inflation rate will rise, expected to rise to 2% in the medium term. The risks of global economic growth in the past 2016-17 years are increasing. China’s economic slowdown and falling commodity prices will pose a pressure on the global economy. 2016-17 years, the global economic growth will rise very slightly. China’s GDP will increase by 6.3% in 2016. The US GDP is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2016; the Fed will continue to raise interest rates gradually. Lower GDP expectations in Brazil, Russia and South africa. Oil prices are driven by an abundance of supply rather than a weak demand. Few new data could trigger a reassessment of the global economic outlook. Domestic banks have limited direct exposure to risk factors. The current low interest rate environment supports economic growth. Global stocks rose, oil prices continued to rise, the global economic recovery was mild, especially the global low interest rate is conducive to the economy and the rebound in oil prices. FTSE Pan European blue chip 300 index closed up 2.58%, to 1294.65 points. Germany’s DAX 30 index closed up 2.65%, to 9377.21 points. France’s CAC 40 index closed up 2.99%, to 4233.47 points. FTSE 100 closed up 2.87%, at 6030.32. The standard & Poor’s 500 index closed up 31.24 points, or 1.65%, at 1926.82 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 257.42 points, or 1.59%, at 16453.83. The nasdaq. 盛文兵:美元推迟加息短期调整 非美日内反弹   美元昨日利率决议公布后不急于加息,短期内美元震荡为主,基本面不支持美元走强,但中长线是美元是走强的,美联储政策需要更加明确地取决于数据,市场可能不相信美联储政策依赖于数据。中期利率路径或被视为是基于日历的承诺。敦促美联储对“点阵图”作出调整,以更好地引导市场。预计2016年美国经济增速和就业市场改善。随着通胀下滑,政策获得更大余地。通胀预期下滑的程度令人不安。股市抛售缓解了中期资产泡沫风险。   中长线美元仍然是强势只是中期调整,市场在等待明确的数据,只有经济数据好美元才可能持续上行,关注美元95.30强支持,只要在这个位置之上美元长线仍然是上涨为主。   大多数美联储官员认为美国增速温和。美联储官员们认为,更多的金融收紧可能会放大下行风险。少数几个美联储官员认为,通胀的直接证据是关键。一些美联储官员认为,通胀前景更加不确定。多数美联储官员认为,2016年美国劳动力市场稳固,数名官员称趋于温和。一些美联储官员担心中国对美国经济的拖累。强调加息时机和步伐取决于经济数据。美元和石油可能会在更长时间里压低通胀。仍然预计会循序渐进地收紧货币政策。多数美联储官员认为,随着油价和美元不利因素的消退,美国通胀率料将升高,料将在中期内升向2%。   2016-17年全球经济增长前景面临的风险增多。中国经济放缓和大宗商品价格下跌将对全球经济构成压力。2016-17年全球经济增速将非常小幅地上升。预计中国2016年GDP将增长6.3%。预计美国2016年GDP将增长2.3%;美联储将继续逐渐加息。下调巴西、俄罗斯和南非的GDP预期。油价下跌受供应充裕驱动,而并非需求疲软。可引发重新评估全球经济展望的新数据寥寥。国内银行对风险因素的直接敞口有限。目前的低利率环境支撑经济增长。   全球股票大涨,油价持续上涨,全球经济温和的复苏,尤其是全球低利率是有利于经济以及油价的反弹。富时泛欧绩优300指数收涨2.58%,报1294.65点。德国DAX 30指数收涨2.65%,报9377.21点。法国CAC 40指数收涨2.99%,报4233.47点。英国富时100指数收涨2.87%,报6030.32点。标普500指数收涨31.24点,涨幅1.65%,报1926.82点。道琼斯工业平均指数收涨257.42点,涨幅1.59%,报16453.83点。纳斯达克[微博]综合指数收涨98.11点,涨幅2.21%,报4534.06点。   今日实战策略: 黄金   黄金昨日正如预期1211区域下跌,美国利率并不急于加息黄金先下跌后上涨,美元连续三次并没有创新低证明下方1200强支持。日线收盘小阳线短期内回调低多为主。上行只有突破1220区域方可打开上行的空间,否则仍然是区间震荡为主。   策略:1200-1202区域低多,止损1196,目标1210、1217区域。 美元   美元昨日正如预期上行,昨日美国利率纪要公布市场前没有加息而是推迟加息短期利空美元,美元日内震荡调整为主,但周线美元收盘在95.30区域之上仍然是长线上涨,日线收盘十字星今日区间96.30-96.95区域震荡为主。   策略:96.99区域做空,止损97.20区域,目标96.60、96.30区域。 欧元   欧元昨日正如预期1.1180区域下跌,日线连续下跌但注意下跌的幅度在变小同时1小时动能持续看涨背离有反弹的要求,4小时受BOLL下轨支持,短期内欧元调整有望结束反弹为主   策略:1.1110区域低多,止损1.1070,目标1.1160、1.1200区域。 英镑   英镑正如预期连续三天下行,但短期下行的空间有限了,而且昨日明显的下跌动能不足,同时1小时出现看涨背离的迹象。,日线正好是BOLL下轨强支持,日线也是成交密集区域,突破在这个区域之上有反弹的要求。   策略:1.4257区域低多,止损1.4210,目标1.4310、1.4370区域。   原油昨日强势上市,减产消息再次刺激石油上涨,近期的原油受消息消息比较大,技术上原没站在4小时10均线以及60均线之上比较强势,1小时均线金叉回抽后低多是上策,同时关注伊朗关于原油的消息。   策略:30.40区域低多,止损29.70,目标31.30、32.00区域。   新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。相关的主题文章:

 

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