Fund managers believe that the stock market is less affected by overseas-660003

Fund managers believe that the A shares by the overseas market of the Spring Festival holiday small – reporter Huang Yingying, overseas market adjustment, and during the A shares closed, many investors fear is also relatively strong, but to go from the market yesterday opened the performance, the overseas market fluctuations have no obvious influence on A shares. Fund managers believe that the short-term performance of A shares is not pessimistic, but from the annual market, still need to be cautious. A shares were impacted by small A shares a week before the Spring Festival holiday, and the small and medium-sized stock index rose relatively ahead, and consumption and some sectors (colored) rose before the spring festival. But before the turnover flat, the financing balance continued to decline, low last year since the stock market crash of June. During the Spring Festival, the overseas stock index generally fell, including Japan, Hongkong and Europe developed stock market showed a larger decline in U.S. stocks is relatively smaller. The analysis of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund fixed income investment department Shi Tongliang, the dollar appeared twists and turns, global oil and commodities fell, the stock market and the euro zone banking crisis, the U.S. interest rate hike is expected to weaken the dollar, the RMB exchange rate adjustment, the pressure will usher in the respite. General manager Boshi macro strategy Department Wei Fengchun said, because of the holiday news is relatively diverse, the overseas capital market present situation is more complicated, not simply to increased risk aversion to sum up. For example, gold rose while the dollar index fell, and the euro, the yen and even the RMB rose sharply against the dollar. International stock markets also have a pattern of contradictions, Europe, Japan and other core stock markets fell sharply, while marginal or emerging stock markets are limited. As a result, there are more than one driving factor leading to the decline in global stock markets, and the dominant driving force is not obvious. Wei Fengchun’s judgment, reviewing history, the impact of overseas markets on A shares is more impact events, such as the European debt crisis and QE stimulus to commodities. But since the exchange rate reform in August 2015, more overseas through the RMB exchange rate and capital flow channels to affect the A shares. However, the turmoil in the overseas market pushed up the RMB exchange rate, while the foreign exchange reserves fell 99 billion 500 million dollars in January, which is also lower than the extreme expectations of the market. Therefore, in the short term, the RMB exchange rate pressure on the market should tend to decrease. If the strict data argument, since 2016, the impact of A shares for U.S. stocks, even than stocks on the next day A shares is more significant. Cautious look at the market outlook, Wei Fengchun pointed out that during the Spring Festival, the overseas stock market fell at the same time, the dollar index fell sharply, the RMB appreciation of the dollar significantly, and in January, the outflow of foreign reserves is better than expected, so the impact of the A shares may be resolved. During the festival the opportunity and brewing hot spots, such as the movie box office and gold prices soaring, emerging consumption continues to grow, the Korean Peninsula military tensions and local NPC and CPPCC, or from the boost to the market. He said that the short-term performance of A shares is not pessimistic, recommended to maintain a neutral position, if during the first half of the week fell sharply, can consider gradually masukura. The allocation style is suggested to be dominated by technology and consumption, supplemented by some cycles, especially by the supply side reform

基金经理认为A股受海外市场影响较小    □本报记者 黄莹颖    春节假期,海外市场大幅调整,而在A股休市期间,不少投资者的担忧情绪也较为浓厚,不过从昨日市场低开高走的表现看,海外市场的波动并未对A股造成明显的影响。基金经理认为,对A股的短期表现不悲观,但从全年市场看,仍需保持谨慎。    A股受冲击小    A股在春节休市之前一周明显上涨,中小盘股指涨幅相对领先,消费与部分周期(有色)行业涨幅居前。但节前成交平淡,融资余额继续减少,创下去年6月股灾以来的新低。春节期间,海外股指普遍下跌,其中日本、香港与欧洲发达股市跌幅较大,美股跌幅相对略小。    摩根士丹利华鑫基金固定收益投资部施同亮分析,美元出现波折,全球油价和大宗商品下跌,股市及欧元区银行危机,使得美国加息预期减弱,美元走势随之调整,人民币汇率压力则迎来喘息机会。    博时基金宏观策略部总经理魏凤春表示,由于节日期间消息相对多元,海外各资本市场呈现较为复杂的局面,不能简单地以避险情绪上升来概括。比如,黄金上涨的同时美元指数下跌,欧元、日元乃至人民币相对美元则急剧走强。国际股市也存在矛盾格局,欧日等核心股市大幅下挫,边缘或新兴股市则跌幅有限。由此可见,导致全球股票市场下跌的驱动因素不止一种,而主导性的驱动因素也不明显。    魏凤春判断,回顾历史,海外市场对A股的影响更多是事件冲击,比如欧洲债务危机以及QE对商品的刺激等。但自2015年8月汇改以来,海外更多是通过人民币汇率和资本流动的渠道来影响A股。但是,这次海外市场的动荡反而推升人民币汇率走强,而1月外汇储备下跌995亿美元,也低于市场的极端预期。因此短期来看,人民币汇率对市场的压力应趋于减小。如果从严格的数据论证来看,2016年以来,A股对美股的影响,甚至比美股对次日A股的影响更为显著。    谨慎看待后市    魏凤春指出,春节期间,海外股票市场同步下跌,美元指数急剧下挫,人民币对美元显著升值,再者1月外储流失好于预期,因此该因素对A股冲击可能有所化解。而在节日期间酝酿的机会热点,比如电影票房与黄金价格飙升,新兴消费持续增长,朝鲜半岛军事紧张以及地方两会等,或对市场产生由点到面的提振作用。他表示,对A股的短期表现不悲观,建议维持中性仓位,如果本周前半周有大幅下挫,可以考虑逐步增仓。配置风格建议以科技、消费为主,辅之以部分周期,特别是受供给侧改革催化的相关行业。    亦有基金经理提醒2016年需控制风险。景顺长城基金投资总监余广指出,目前从估值来看,创业板估值还是很贵。截至2016年2月5日,深交所数据显示,创业板平均市盈率为81.7倍,个别公司更高得离谱。新兴行业虽然整体行业不错,但好公司并不多,在投资新兴行业公司时,需要仔细斟酌,精挑细选。而在新兴行业分化的情况下,传统行业也面临不少问题,在经济不振的背景下,传统行业中的周期性行业难以看到起色。金融行业中,如银行,虽然估值便宜,但由于坏账因素,估计今年也难以看到业绩增长;房地产行业的黄金发展时期已经过去,未来增长比较困难,虽然国家政策在不断支持这个行业,但在投资上,也只存在阶段性机会。    施同亮则认为,受国际环境带动,节后人民币国债出现小幅上涨。中国经济去杠杆过程还较漫长,债券收益率处于中长期下行通道。但今年全年来看,国际资本流动、风险偏好、汇率波动不确定性较强,基本面复杂程度超过了以往。所以,债市不会一帆风顺,但仍有较好的配置价值。 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

 

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