First tier cities investment value of the property market is not large-www.04jjj.com

First-tier cities property investment value has not the sina finance opinion leader column (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Huang Zhilong excluding the school district and other non economic factors, the investment value is not first-tier cities real estate, the key reason is that the price is too high first-tier cities, housing prices rose overdraft future space. From the long-term investment value, most of the first tier cities housing rental ratio is more than 11000, housing rental income obtained by annualized investment rate is only about 1%. The real estate investment value of the first tier cities is not large, this summer, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Hefei, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Shanghai and other cities "King" frequent, Shanghai is the most crazy – in August 18th, one day out of three kings. Some media said in awe, the real estate market and the land has become the core of the city, the capital of the hunting field. In the current domestic and international economic situation, the real estate market will continue to frequent the most expensive land? Will housing prices continue to rise? Welcome to zhuanlan@staff.sina, say your point of view! This summer, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Hefei, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Shanghai and other cities "King" frequent, Shanghai is the most crazy – in August 18th, one day out of three kings. Some media said in awe, the real estate market and the land has become the core of the city, the capital of the hunting field. The author believes that in the current domestic and international economic situation, the real estate market participants responsibilities, purpose and thoughts are not the same, if the current frequency is the most expensive land prices soaring, the trend continues, the real estate of the locomotive car China economy will likely suddenly stop or rollover, China economic hard landing risk increase. Let’s figure out who is the leader Who is the follower? At present, China’s real estate market has the following main participants: the central government, financial institutions, local governments, developers, investors and rigid consumers. Among them, the central government is responsible for regulating macroeconomic policies such as finance and taxation, currency, making long-term development planning of real estate market, maintaining the order of the national real estate market, and thus affecting the market expectations, to avoid the collapse of the real estate bubble. At the same time, through the development of the real estate market, to achieve economic growth, employment and a series of economic goals. Banks and other financial institutions through the real estate development loans and personal mortgage loans, to maximize their own profits, while appropriate control of their financial risks. Local government is responsible for land acquisition, auction and other implementation work, in order to maintain the stability of the local real estate market at the same time, to achieve the local economic growth and fiscal revenue growth maximization. Real estate developers use their existing political, economic, legal and public opinion environment as well as investor and consumer psychology to maximize their own profits. Individual investors can make use of the existing credit policy and investment speculation space to realize the value of their own wealth, and resist the erosion of inflation to personal wealth. Under the constraint of the existing income and wealth, the rigid consumers can buy more comfortable housing at lower price to maximize the living utility. Among these participants

一线城市楼市投资价值已经不大   文 新浪财经意见领袖专栏(微信公众号kopleader)专栏作家 黄志龙   如果剔除学区等非经济因素,一线城市房地产的投资价值并不大,其关键原因在于一线城市价格过高,透支了住房价格的未来上涨空间。从长期投资价值来说,大多数一线城市住房的租售比都在1 1000以上,住房通过出租获取的年化投资收益率仅为1%左右。 一线城市楼市投资价值已经不大   这个夏天,南京、杭州、苏州、合肥、武汉、郑州、上海等城市“地王”频出,上海最疯狂――8月18日一天连出三个地王。一些媒体惊呼,当前核心城市的房地产和土地市场,已经成为大资本的游猎场。在当前的国内外经济形势下,房地产市场地王频现是否还会继续?房价飙升的趋势还会继续保持吗?欢迎发文到zhuanlan@staff.sina,说出你的观点!   这个夏天,南京、杭州、苏州、合肥、武汉、郑州、上海等城市“地王”频出,上海最疯狂――8月18日一天连出三个地王。一些媒体惊呼,当前核心城市的房地产和土地市场,已经成为大资本的游猎场。笔者认为,在当前的国内外经济形势下,房地产市场参与各方的职责、目的和心思各不相同,如果当前地王频现、房价飙升的趋势继续保持,房地产这辆中国经济的火车头将可能出现突然停止或侧翻,中国经济硬着陆风险将加大。   先理清谁是主导者?谁是跟随者?   当前,我国房地产市场主要有以下参与主体:中央政府、金融机构、地方政府、开发商、投资者和刚性消费者。   其中,中央政府负责调控财税、货币等宏观经济政策,制定房地产市场长期发展规划,维持全国房地产市场秩序,并据此影响市场预期,避免房地产泡沫的破灭。同时,通过发展房地产市场,实现经济增长、就业等一系列经济目标。   银行等金融机构通过房地产开发贷款和个人按揭贷款,实现自身利润最大化,同时适当控制自身的金融风险。   地方政府负责土地征收、拍卖等执行工作,在维持本地区房地产市场秩序稳定的同时,实现地方经济增速和财政收入增长最大化。   房地产开发商在利用现有政治、经济、法制和舆论环境以及投资者和消费者心理,实现自身利润最大化。   个人投资者通过利用现有信贷政策和投资投机空间,实现自身财富的保值增值,抵御通货膨胀对个人财富的侵蚀。   刚性消费者是在现有收入和财富约束条件下,以较低价格购买较舒适的住房,实现居住效用最大化。   在这些参与主体中,中央政府、地方政府、银行和开发商是房地产市场的主导者和做市商,影响着房地产市场的发展格局,投资者和消费者是市场的被动参与者,是房地产大浪大潮的跟随者。   谁是高房价金刚不破的最大保护伞?   对于银行金融机构而言,房地产市场贷款需求仍然是“资产荒”大环境下的优质资产,这也是今年以来个人按揭贷款占据银行贷款总额大头的根本原因。与此同时,地方政府财政收支压力巨大,对房地产市场和土地财政的依赖与日俱增,因此不得不使尽一切方法和手段加快去库存进程。房地产开发商顺应去库存政策和融资成本低等市场环境,在核心城市频频创造地王,加快了这些城市房价的上涨。总体而言,尽管在核心城市和三四线城市有所差异,但金融机构、地方政府、开发商的目标大体一致,三者构成了当前房地产价格高速上涨的利益共同体,也是高房价金刚不破的最大保护伞和最大受益者。   对于当前的房地产产业,中央政府的态度是,利用其国民经济第一支柱产业的带动力,避免经济增速和财政收入的过快下滑,为新一轮改革腾挪空间。因此,对于房地产企业、金融机构和地方政府游走在灰色地带的融资、拆迁行为,只要不出现大的金融风险和社会事件,都是采取选择性忽视的默许态度。然而,中央政府和监管部门始终承担着房地产市场泡沫破灭带来的系统性风险,一旦泡沫破灭,中国经济势必出现硬着陆,银行等金融机构将受到难以承受的冲击,严重的金融危机将由风险变成现实。   投资者和刚性消费者是房地产市场的被动参与者,其中先入场的投资者获得了房价快速上涨的巨大利益,后入场的投资者则面临高位套牢的风险,二者心态差异较大。消费者特别是核心城市后入场的刚性消费者不仅面临着个人财富高位套牢的压力,还承受着较大的还贷压力。   房地产市场现在还有投资价值吗?   在此,撇开以自住房需求为主的刚性消费者,重点讨论房地产市场对潜在投资者的投资价值。笔者认为,不动产作为居民资产配置的重要组成部分,应从安全性、收益性和流动性三方面来综合考虑是否具有投资价值。   住房资产的安全性是指住房居住属性消失的风险。住房作为不动产,其居住属性和资产属性存在消失的可能,如地震、核泄漏等事件出现重大安全事故,或者城市建设和规划难以兑现,如海景房、各地新城的基础设施等配套长期缺位,前景十分悲观,这些住房的居住和资产属性都面临消失的风险。   住房资产的收益性包括住房价格上涨的增值收益和房租获得的租金收益。其中,理论上讲,租金收益是衡量住房资产长期投资价值和收益性的关键指标。   住房资产的流动性则是指住房作为一类资产在二级市场交易的活跃程度,投资者持有不动产能否及时套现的可能性和便利程度。   综合考虑以上三个方面,笔者认为,如果剔除学区等非经济因素,一线城市房地产的投资价值并不大,其关键原因在于一线城市价格过高,透支了住房价格的未来上涨空间。从长期投资价值来说,大多数一线城市住房的租售比都在1 1000以上,住房通过出租获取的年化投资收益率仅为1%左右。   相反,在一些交通便利、人口净流入、基础设施等配套完备、租售比在1 300-1 500的二线城市核心区域的不动产,作为居民资产配置的安全性风险较小,收益性也能得到保证,二级市场交易活跃使其流动性也不错。因此,如果投资者还希望继续增持不动产,这些区域的住房不失为较好的选择,基本能同时满足安全性、收益性和流动性的需求。   (本文作者介绍:苏宁金融研究院宏观经济研究中心中心主任、高级研究员。)相关的主题文章:

 

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